The talking heads keep pushing that the economy is improving ,but, I think the millions upon million who are out of a job, are probably going to not agree. The talking heads are focused on profit. So if a company can make enough income while being lean and mean, well great. The problem is we will see profits long before any serious recovery starts. Don’t take this the wrong way, a company needs profits before it can start hiring, but this is going to be a turtle race recovery.
1-year and less certificates of deposit rates have continued to drop. Our high 1-year at 2.50% went down to a 2.00%. The next highest rate, 2.35% APY, held for about a week, but has since dropped. Some of the big boys have continued to adjust rates down. Some long-term rates have inched up a bit. At the beginning of the month we had a 5-year CD at 3.70% APY. It increased to a 3.80% APY, but has fallen back down to 3.70%. Of course, 5-year CDs may not be the best idea right now unless you have a great ladder or the penalty is low for closing the CD early. The other side of the coin, we just don’t know when the rates will be increasing. The Fed is talking like it could be a while.
Residential property continues to be a drag. Many states had issued moratoriums on foreclosures and those are beginning to expire. There are still lots of variable loans that are re-setting. With the way home prices are, there is no way to refinance. Banks have been trying to hold off showing losses, but they can only do that for so long. The June data for many banks looks worse than March’s.
Commercial real estate appears to be the next big problem. Many developers built small business complexes expecting them to be filled with entrepreneurs looking to serve all of the new homeowners. As the complexes remain empty, the commercial property owners can’t afford to continue to take the losses each month. Many are letting them go into foreclosure or selling for steep discounts.
So do I have any good news. The workweek as reported for average hours worked increased a little. Income overall snuck up 0.1%. And my kids’ soccer team, the Big Dogs started in Division B; their highest start, yet. Yes, I am a very proud coach and father. So how about you guys?
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